Projected economic burden of pancreatic cancer in Sweden in 2030

Abstract

Background

Pancreatic cancer is predicted to become the second most common cause of cancer-related death by 2030. The objective of this study was to estimate the economic burden of pancreatic cancer for the years 2018 and 2030 based on changing demographics and incidence rates in Sweden.

Method

The incidence of pancreatic cancer in Sweden and additional relevant data were obtained from official statistics. A linear regression model and the mean incidence rates 2008–2018 were applied to calculate the incidence in 2030. An economic model based on the human capital method was created to calculate the indirect cost of pancreatic cancer in 2018 and 2030. Costs associated with surgery, radiology, oncology, and palliative care constituted the direct costs. A sensitivity analysis was performed.

Results

The incidence of pancreatic cancer in Sweden in the year 2018 was 1352 patients and projected to between 1554 (+15%) and 1736 (+28%) in 2030. The total cost was calculated to €125 million in 2018 and between €210 million (+68%) and €225 million (+80%) in 2030. The indirect cost in the ≤65-year-old group was €328,344 in 2018 and between €380,738 and €382,109 per individual in 2030.

Conclusions

The economic burden of pancreatic cancer is expected to increase in Sweden by 2030 due to the increasing incidence of the disease and changing demographics. Pancreatic cancer is a growing health care problem in urgent need of advancements in prevention, early detection, treatment, and control of the disease.