Application of the International Bladder Cancer Group prediction model for recurrence-free survival on a national cohort of primary intermediate risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer

Authors

  • Denis Mesinovic Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden; Department of Urology Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden
  • Johannes Bobjer Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden; Department of Urology Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden
  • Oskar Hagberg Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
  • Firas Aljabery Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Division of Urology, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
  • Truls Gårdmark Department of Urology, Danderyd Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
  • Staffan Jahnson Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Division of Urology, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
  • Tomas Jerlström Department of Urology, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden
  • Henrik Kjölhede Department of Urology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden; Institute of Clinical Sciences, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
  • Per-Uno Malmström Department of Surgical Sciences, University of Uppsala, Uppsala, Sweden
  • Viveka Ströck Department of Urology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden; Institute of Clinical Sciences, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
  • Karin Söderkvist Oncology, Department of Diagnostics and Intervention, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
  • Anders Ullén Department of Pelvic Cancer, Genitourinary Oncology and Urology Unit, Theme Cancer, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Oncology and Pathology, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
  • Lars Holmberg Department of Surgical Sciences, University of Uppsala, Uppsala, Sweden; School of Cancer and Pharmaceutical Sciences, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom
  • Christel Häggström Northern Register Centre, Oncology, Department of Diagnostics and Intervention, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
  • Fredrik Liedberg Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden; Department of Urology Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2340/sju.v61.45712

Keywords:

Intermediate risk, non-muscle invasive bladder cancer, risk stratification

Abstract

The International Bladder Cancer Group (IBCG) has proposed a prognostic model for intermediate risk (IR) non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) for clinical decision-making. We applied the IBCG IR model in a population-based Swedish setting in patients with primary IR NMIBC diagnosed 2013–2014 in BladderBaSe 2.0. Patients were stratified into low-risk (unifocal and tumour size < 3 cm) and intermediate-risk (multiple and/or tumour size ≥ 3 cm) for estimation of 1- and 3-year recurrence-free survival (RFS). Among 710 patients with IR NMIBC, 329 (46%) and 381 (54%) were categorized as low- and intermediate-risk, respectively. Probabilities of disease recurrence or death at 1 and 3 years in low-risk patients were 19% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15–23) and 41% (95% CI: 35–46), versus 27% (95% CI: 22–31) and 45% (95% CI: 40–50) in the intermediate-risk group. In a sensitivity analysis including only patients receiving serial adjuvant instillations (n = 152) the corresponding probabilities at 1 and 3 years were 19% (95% CI: 10–28) and 33% (95% CI: 22–43) versus 15% (95% CI: 7–23) and 31% (95% CI: 20–41), respectively. Thus, no clinically meaningful difference in recurrence-free survival was observed between International Bladder Cancer Group low- and intermediate-risk groups in this population-based primary non-muscle invasive bladder cancer setting.

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Published

2026-04-17

How to Cite

Mesinovic, D., Bobjer, J., Hagberg, O., Aljabery, F., Gårdmark, T., Jahnson, S., … Liedberg, F. (2026). Application of the International Bladder Cancer Group prediction model for recurrence-free survival on a national cohort of primary intermediate risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer. Scandinavian Journal of Urology, 61(1), 127–130. https://doi.org/10.2340/sju.v61.45712

Issue

Vol. 61 (2026)

Section

Publications

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Copyright (c) 2026 Denis Mesinovic, Johannes Bobjer, Oskar Hagberg, Firas Aljabery, Truls Gårdmark, Staffan Jahnson, Tomas Jerlström, Henrik Kjölhede, Per-Uno Malmström, Viveka Ströck, Karin Söderkvist, Anders Ullén, Lars Holmberg, Christel Häggström, Fredrik Liedberg

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

As from Volume 59 (2024) all published articles, unless otherwise specified, are published under CC-BY license, allowing third parties to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format and to remix, transform, and build upon the material, with the condition of proper attribution to the original work. 

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