BRAF mutational status as a prognostic marker for survival in malignant melanoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

Background: The analysis of the BRAF mutational status has been established as a standard procedure during diagnosis of advanced malignant melanoma due to the fact that BRAF inhibitors constitute a cornerstone in the treatment of metastatic disease. However, the general impact of BRAF mutational status on survival remains unclear. Our study aimed to assess the underlying prognostic significance of BRAF mutant versus wild type (WT) malignant melanoma on overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and progression-free survival (PFS).

Material and methods: A systematic literature search in EMBASE, Medline and Cochrane CENTRAL was performed. Studies were included if they reported survival outcomes for BRAF mutant versus WT patients as hazard ratios (HR) or in Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves. Random-effects meta-analysis models were used to pool HRs across the studies.

Results: Data from 52 studies, representing 7519 patients, were pooled for analysis of OS. The presence of a BRAF mutation was statistically significantly associated with a reduced OS (HR [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 1.23 [1.09–1.38]), however, with substantial heterogeneity between the studies (I²: 58.0%). Meta-regression and sensitivity analyses showed that age, sex and BRAF mutation testing method did not have a significant effect on the OS HR. BRAF mutant melanoma showed comparable effect on DFS to non-BRAF mutant melanoma in stage I–III melanoma (combined HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 0.92–1.46), and on PFS in stage III–IV (HR: 0.98 (95% CI: 0.68−1.40)).

Conclusion: Although there was substantial heterogeneity between the studies, the overall results demonstrated a poorer prognosis and OS in patients harbouring BRAF mutations. Future studies should take this into account when evaluating epidemiological data and treatment effects of new interventions in patients with malignant melanoma.