Ability to Predict Melanoma Within 5 Years Using Registry Data and a Convolutional Neural Network: A Proof of Concept Study


  • Martin Gillstedt
  • Sam Polesie




area under curve, deep learning, epidemiologic methods, machine learning, melanoma, ROC curve, sensitivity and specificity, receiver-operating characteristic curve


Research relating to machine learning algorithms, including convolutional neural networks, has increased during the past 5 years. The aim of this pilot study was to investigate how accurately a convolutional neural network, trained on Swedish registry data, could perform in predicting cutaneous invasive and in situ melanoma (CMM) within 5 years. A cohort of 1,208,393 individuals was used. Registry data ranged from 4 July 2005 to 31 December 2011, predicting CMM between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2016. A convolutional neural network with one-dimensional convolutions with respect to time was trained using healthcare databases and registers. The algorithm was trained on 23,886 individuals. Validation was performed on a holdout validation set including 6,000 individuals. After training and validation, the convolutional neural network was evaluated on a test set (1,000 individuals with an CMM occurring within 5 years and 5,000 without). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.59 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.57–0.61). The point on the receiver-operating characteristic curve where sensitivity equalled specificity had a value of 56% (sensitivity 95% CI 53–60% and specificity 95% CI 55–58%). Albeit at an early stage, this pilot investigation demonstrates potential usefulness for machine learning algorithms in predicting melanoma risk.


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How to Cite

Gillstedt, M., & Polesie, S. (2022). Ability to Predict Melanoma Within 5 Years Using Registry Data and a Convolutional Neural Network: A Proof of Concept Study. Acta Dermato-Venereologica, 102, adv00750. https://doi.org/10.2340/actadv.v102.2028